Original Message:   It depends who is doing the casting.
I normally run parties with 3 people who have access to the mirrored paths, a priest and two sorcerers. However, the game will only provide two Guineveres, so the third spellcaster will be casting at an effective skill level of only 39 instead of 58. This is going to reduce the chances of his spell working compared to the other two. I don't know exactly what the probability will be, though, hence my assumption of 80+% rather than 87%.

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