Okay, I'm bored, I'm about to go for a BBQ and I've got nothing better to do. This was just a discussion I remember we had here QUITE a while ago and I finally can be bothered to calculate the odds of getting a scroll.
Now The Idea is returning to Emerald Isle without cheating. So follow my lead if you can. Upon 'Mephistoing' the dragon of Emerald Isle, you can gain several artifacts and relics. The Dragon should ONLY drop level 6 items. However, upon 13 successful loots of artifacts/relics it Is possible to obtain category 1-5 items instead of relics/artifacts (a Versnewald theory).
The Lloyds Beacon scroll can therefore be obtained by the Dragon. From Fander treespooks calculations (1/10) loots of the dragon will provide a successful multi-loot, while (1/25) of these multiloots will be an artifact relics. Therefore the chance of looting an artifact/relic is (1/250). The chance of then collecting 13 of these is (1/3250). With a total of approximately (correct me if I'm wrong) 490 items (not counting quest etc) in the game, of which probably 370 can be enchanted (with one of 99 possible enchantments) this gives a total 36, 630 + 120. Which mean the odds of getting the scroll instead of another object is (1/36, 750)
then it's just a matter of multiplication. If the odds of getting one relic is (1/3250) and the odds of getting the lloyds beacon scroll from these items is (1/36, 750) then the number of loots from the dragon to get the scroll will avergae out at (1/119, 437, 500)or One in one hundred and 199 million, four hundred and thirty seven thousand, five hundred.
But I say 'returning to EI without cheating' I know some peoples will say morally that Mephistoing is cheating, but it's less hardwork than using an editor and quite frankly, more work that is worthwhile. Especially considering there's really nothing to do in EI anyway.
As Han Solo said, "never tell me the odds"
I hope you can see why he made that request.