You see, you can always walk out Harmonadale by foot.
Hiring a tracker and a guide means spending same 2-day's travel to other location. If we just could devise an NPC appearing every time you walk out Harmondale. And warning against leaving on foot.
Or a formal notice of the "party killed in ambush", and in a week appearing in Harmondale. Again in same place.
Or a man teling you to pay some 2000 or 3000 gold pieces to show secret paths to you. If you refuse, just no way out to BDs, Er, or TF.
Until you do the Stables quest.